Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Thursday, 3 April 2003

JOB MARKET FORECAST

Abhi
Naukri.com (Feb. 27, 2003 issue enclosed)
03/03/03

In this issue, I have marked:

  • In Red ✓
    adverts of Public Ltd. Companies

  • In Green
    names of Recruitment/Placement Companies who have advertised on behalf of their clients

I presume all of these adverts are on naukri.com website, so Sajida can easily download directly those which I have marked in Red.

Of course, she will need to “convert” these using “Advt. Convert” software given to her. And when she does:

→ Actual advertiser’s name/contact data will get hidden.

→ Our email ID (Apply@3pjobs.com) will replace original email ID.

She must, of course, send to us one copy of each advert with FULL/ORIGINAL content.

When we have compiled 100,000 such job-adverts (over next 12 months?), then using JOBMINE software (almost same as our Advt. Convert with a few small changes), we would process/datamine these 1 lakh job-adverts, to uncover/discover following patterns/trends which would help us to carry out an aggressive/pro-active…MARKETING DRIVE:

  1. Industry-wise frequency distribution

    • Which are hot/sunrise sectors?

    • Which industries have maximum demand of executives?

  2. Function-wise frequency distribution

    • Which “functions” are most sought after?

  3. Age-wise frequency distribution

    • What is the “prime” age-group?

  4. Designation-Level wise frequency distribution

    • At what “level” most recruitment is taking place?

  5. Edu-level/branch wise distribution

    • What educational qualifications are in greatest demand?

  6. City-wise distribution

    • Which cities/regions have maximum job-offerings?

7. "Company-Name" Wise
Which companies are hiring most? At what levels? For what functions?

8. Job Descriptions / Keywords
We would be able to “parse” all sentences appearing in job-description para of each job-advt. & then arrange these:

  • Industry wise

  • Function wise

  • Desig.-Level wise

We will do the same with “keywords” (as opposed to “key-phrases” & “key-sentences”).

These analyses would help us in automatic “matchmaking” of resumes which also contain →

  • Same keywords / phrases / sentences (as found in job-advt).

Then you don’t need a consultant to manually enter “SEARCH PARAMETERS” into our “Resumearch” & then wait for results to appear & then,

One by one, open each resume & read it to decide how well that resume “matches” the UN-EXPRESSED criteria specified by the client — but which cannot be entered as “Search-Parameters”!

Parameters!
In ResuMine, we are trying to plot “FUNCTION EXPOSURE PROFILE” as follows:

(Two Bell-curve graphs drawn — first showing population of resumes = 95,000 in SALES, second showing Job Ad population = 15,623 in SALES drafted by VOLTAS)

Could it so happen that if we (JOBMINE) process 100,000 job-advt., we could see a frequency distribution such as following emerge?

If VOLTAS recruitment manager “composes” a job-advt. using our WEBSERVICE (Advt.-Compose Tool) & suddenly sees above-mentioned GRAPH emerge in front of his eyes, he would know (although he may not admit it!), that he has done a LOUSY JOB in drafting/composing the advt!

Now, from the dropdown LIST-BOX, provided by us, he can choose/pick…

Some more

  • Keywords

  • Key phrases

  • Key sentences

… pertaining to Sales function, and try again.

Now, he sees, “revised” graph as follows:

(Drawn graph with Job Advt. No, Drafted by VOLTAS)


This would be a tremendous Decision Support System

Based on “Datamining” of 1 lakh job-advt. (as it will go on improving as we JOBMINE more & more).

If we can pull this off, recruitment would never be the same again!

Thereafter, no recruitment manager / HR manager, would EVER want to advertise in
→ Newspapers
→ Magazines
→ Jobsites

!!

Remember, what we can do, others can do even better! – but “first mover” has better chances of survival.

cc: Kartavya
cc: Inder / Anjaria

(Signature)
08/04/03

Abhi / Deepa

  • Job Advt. Datamining (Job-Mining)

  • Creation of a Job Advt. Database

Enclosed, find a list of data/info/fields which we should plan to extract from lakhs of job-adverts, that will get downloaded from 6 jobsites, using spider being developed.
Maybe you will be able to think-up of some more fields that may come to your mind, after reading enclosed notes.

You should also borrow from me and read folders/notes on:

  • JAWS

  • JobAlert as SMS, etc.

But these folders need not be read right now, because, in enclosed notes, I have briefly covered these Concepts/Usage/Applications.

We can/will take-up for development each of these “applications” (one-by-one).

Auto-Converter

In course of time. But the first step is to modify/redesign “Auto-Converter” in such a manner that, it is capable of:

  • handling/processing job-adverts (digital) received from any source and in any format

  • doing this “processing” automatically & without any human intervention


  • creating a structured database of job-adverts, using which, we can launch a series of “applications”

Whereas, it is desirable that such a modified Auto-Converter is capable of processing job-adverts from any source and in any format, the danger is that such a universal tool may run too slow, trying to search for all possible permutations/combinations.

If you feel the same way, you may consider developing 6 different tools, each exclusively meant for processing job-adverts from one/given source only. This can speed-up processing.

(Signature)

Deepa – Abhi – Nagwekar – Kartavya – Inder
(CPL Candidate Test)

What can be equated to “Market Demand” for executives?
Obviously – Job Adverts.
So, downloading lakh job-adverts from various jobsites & then plotting Frequency Distribution Graphs

  • citywise

  • functionwise

  • industrywise

  • education-wise

  • age-wise etc.

→ Clearly define, the JOB-MARKET in India.

Now, who/what “supplies” executives? (Supply-chain!)

For fresh/entry level, these are Colleges/Training Institutions (NIIT, APTECH etc.) – Instt. of Chartered Acct / Instt. of Cost & Works Accountant etc. etc.

At Experienced Executive Levels, the “Source of Supply” is Thousands of Companies (where these executives are working).

Obviously, we cannot email specific job details to Corporates (like most jobsites – it would be too obvious – in respect of our “hidden intentions”!! (viz: to get their employees to submit their resumes).

BUT, if Abhi can produce such HR Reports (once-a-month), Inder can cleverly push (email) such GRAPHS to Corporate HR Mgrs with an “educative” covering letter.

Let us do.

Abhi – Kartavya – Vicky – Inder – Deepa

Job Adverts. Summary is quite like a TV Guide

At micro-level, individual jobseekers are interested to know of jobs having specific “Position Names/Actual designations”, so they can apply.

At macro-level, individuals are interested to know:

  • Which Industry is advertising most (or least)

  • What Functions are in great demand

  • How many jobs are there at various Desig. Levels

  • In which Cities are most openings

  • What Edu. Qualifications are in demand etc. etc.

From 2495 job-adverts, Deepa has prepared such Job-Market Profile graphs for FUNCTIONS.
In 2/3 days, she will prepare the rest.

Then, we will make this content available to one top-ranking media in each category viz: Newspapers / Magazines / TV / Jobsite etc.

That should give us a lot of PUBLICITY.


Abhi
cc: Kartavya

Job Advt Analysis Tabulation

Function:

Advt. NoPosition Advertised NameJobsite Uploaded onResumes Received (Descending order)Cumulative (No. of Resumes / % of Resumes)

(Sl. No, Cumm. %)
Example: 10 → 80


Abhi → Refining "Project Manhattan"

  • During last 6/8 months, we must have uploaded some 3000/4000 job-adverts on different jobsites (Monster / JobsAhead / JobsDB) and received over 40,000 email resumes.

  • It is now high time to carefully analyse what has been happening before (blindly) continuing with Project Manhattan.

Such an analysis becomes all-the-more important/urgent, considering that we are:

→ about to signup Naukri @ Rs. 60,000/-
→ may also add PlacementIndia & CareerAge, before long
→ continuing to explore more jobsites which have jobalert/FTP/large resume databases.

  • A very quick (coarse?) analysis of data you gave me (for last 15 days), shows that:

    • Ave. Resume/job-advt = 5.3
    • Highest No. of resumes/advt = 392!
    • A mere 4% of advt (60 advt) yielded a whopping 79.5% of all resumes recd. (5887)

For this group, ave. resumes/advt works out to:

Approx. 100! (Pretty Good).


  • We need to do similar analysis for all the 4000 job-adverts & all the 40,000 resumes received during last 6 months (ever since we launched Project Manhattan) & do it FAST!


  • We should also analyze this entire database (4000 advts / 40,000 resumes),

    • Industry-wise
    • Function-wise
    • Position Name-wise
    • Jobsite-wise (from where resumes came)


  • It is unimportant as to from where we had “downloaded” a particular advt.

  • Since we are not revealing the “Name” of the advertiser, there is no question of that influencing the quantity/quality of response.

  • Not only do we want to discover
    → Which jobsites give more resumes,
    but
    → Which jobsites give more resumes for which functions.

    The underlying assumption is that, even on a given jobsite, there is no uniform distribution of resumes amongst all the functions.

    So, the trick is to unearth,
    → Which jobsites are having good quantity/quality of resumes in:
    • Marketing
    • Sales
    • R&D
    • Software
    • etc. etc.

    → Which websites produce better (quantity) responses for:
    • Senior Positions
    • Middle Positions
    • Junior Positions

    • By conducting some very simple statistical analysis (A/B/C analysis = 80-20 ratio etc.), we would be in a position to discover PATTERNS / PROBABILITIES.

    • With help of these emerging “patterns,” we would be able to predict (with reasonable accuracy),
      • Expected Response (No. of resumes that are likely to be received) from each website, for each function, if we were to upload a given job-advt on that website.
      This is merely an “extrapolation” of past into future.

    • A tabulation such as following will emerge:


    Function: Mktg.

    Sample Size / No. of AdvertsNo. of Resumes

    Jobsite on which advt is uploaded

    JobsiteTotal AdvtsTotal ResumesProbabilities of Getting (5 / 25 / 50 / 100 resumes)
    Monster0.90 / 0.70 / 0.60 / 0.50
    Naukri0.55 / 0.50 / 0.40 / 0.40
    Jobs Ahead0.30 / 0.25 / 0.20 / 0.10
    Jobs DB0.10 / 0.08 / 0.07 / 0.05
    Grand Total

    Such tabulations have to be constructed (from existing 4000 advts / 40,000 resumes recd) for each Function!

    • Of course, as more & more job-adverts get uploaded daily & more & more resumes keep arriving daily, the software should automatically re-calculate the “Probabilities” & re-populate the tables.

    • Now it is easy to develop “Decision-Rules” which software will automatically apply (to decide on which jobsite to upload a given job-advt), the moment Sayida downloads a job-advt.

      In fact, the software will, on its own & without human intervention, actually upload each downloaded job-advt on the BEST / MOST APPROPRIATE jobsite!

    With this, we have:
    → Taken the “Guess-Work” out of the process
    → Automated the process (human use of human-beings)
    → Ensured high rate of success
    → Eliminated a lot of wasted time / effort / money & vastly increased cost/benefit ratio.

    We must make Project Manhattan to “Graduate” to a “Pin-point / Targetted / Laser-guided bomb.”

    How soon?

    (Signed)
    03/05/03

  • Analysis of Resumes Recd. Between 15/04 & 30/04/03

    No. of Job Adverts in the SlabNo. of Resumes in the SlabNo. of Resumes in this SlabCumulative No. of Job AdvtCumulative No. of Resumes%
    3113131131
    111991143122
    16114130426357.6
    1391543517869.9
    1770960588779.5
    2256382645087.1
    36424118687492.9
    64297182717196.9
    137176319734799.2
    10765513957402100.0

    Total: 1395 job-adverts, 7402 resumes


    This analysis shows that just 4% of the total job-adverts uploaded (i.e., 60 advts) produced nearly 80% of the resumes (i.e., 5887).

    That is, 96% of our time/money/effort was WASTE!

    So, what we need to figure out is:

    • What Industries / Functions / Design levels did these 60 job-adverts belong to?

    • Which jobsite gave best response against which job-advt?
















  • No comments:

    Post a Comment