BEYOND THE INTERNET

"Beyond The Internet" -- Larry Smith

Quote	My Comments
p11/ What have you done new, today for me?	This is precisely what every jobseeker registered with us would like to ask us.
12/ The internet must be seen as an extraordinarily powerful, highly flexible, interactive marketing tool
14/ While Consumers are certainly lazy and creatures of habit, they are also profoundly fickle.	In many respects, Corporate Consumers are quite different from Ordinary Consumers.
15/ With a lag, others than duplicate the innovation	Whatever we try to do on our website today, our competitors will do... the same, next week.
18/ Of course, disintermediation will take time, and it will not apply to every product and every market.	Much will depend upon the value-addition by the Intermediary.
19/ The telecom networks... how plan to deal with the explosion of communication - choices by selling Contents, even though they have no	This is why I am unwilling to pay Rs. 2/- to a mobile telecom service - provider, to send a "Job Alert" or a "Candidate Alert" over SMS, when I can do it for FREE.

 

Number	Note	Comment
	experience in either selling or creating content. And there is no particular reason why the producers of Content, with so many choices of distribution available to them, should share with the networks, anything more than a modest distribution fee.	over email! - even 10,000 alerts everyday. We will do this when SMS becomes "free" (to sender).
20/	Increasing size and faster response are incompatible, plain & simple.	This is why we need "Expert Systems" to grow in size and still remain responsive (fast).
26/	Ironically, this alternative can accommodate both reasonable Size and speed, where Size is a natural by-product of market success .....	Use of expert systems.
23/	Unfortunately, without long term patient capital, enterprise cannot undertake long term initiatives. And without long-term initiatives, a Company cannot have sustained competitive advantage.	Fortunately, 3P is run on owner's (patient) capital (having ploughed back all profits to grow organically).
30/	High longterm profit is achieved when you deliver to the Customer, a premium-value product that the Customer will need for the next hundred years.	Executives will always be required to run enterprises

 

Number	Note	Comment
30/	You can create such a dominant position by choosing a market need that Others ignore... In the ultimate manifestation of this strategy, you are the only one who knows how to satisfy that need. This is the strategy for the Information Age... It is about mobilizing Information to high purpose in a way that only you can.	Can we, in our business, say that market-need is a RIGHT candidate at RIGHT time and at RIGHT price? If yes, that would require, a huge database of millions of resumes pinpoint search fast response (CARDIS - ARGIS)
31/	We need only predict the demand conditions that arise from the most fundamentally unchanging characteristics of the marketplace. What drove the market then, drives it now.	"Jobs" & "Jobholders" (and therefore jobseekers) are such fundamental unchanging conditions of market.
31/	When Innovators know what demand to pursue, they use "to-day's" technology to create a solution. That is particularly true, if today's technology is not fully used.	Expert-systems are such "solutions".
32/	Business databases could hold real Corporate histories, and they do not.	Corporate Janam-Kundli.

 

Number	Note	Comment
32/	Fortunately, those who follow a more imaginative approach, will be in the advantageous position of having few competitors... But eventually a much more profitable approach will triumph. And that approach will be based on information in its highest expression.	ARDIS/ARGIS, conceived (or let us say "imagined" 6/7 years ago) are such approaches, based on power of Computer software.
33/	The market that produces the most assured profits is the market whose demand is most stable, whose demand is the same today as it will be in 2101.	Matchmaking of demand and availability (supply) of "SKILLS" is one such market.
35/	From shopfloor worker to CEO, People there must be
	Faster responses/fewer mistakes Productivity
	and
	Fewer resources used Profitability

 

Number	Note	Comment
38/	However, when Computing is applied to problems with no obvious or simple solutions, such as, how to choose a Senior Executive... It is an entirely new game - one that will have profound effects on both Computing and the business world.	This is what I said in "QUO VADIS" in 1987 and again in my notes on ARDIS/ARGIS in 1996.
40/	... users will not be able to solve many of these problems, if they act without the involvement of computing specialists. The Computing Industry fails to see this dilemma, principally because too many of its members see themselves as pure technicians executing someone else's orders.	Tech - Team Message here is that you become "Business Managers" and not remain mere technicians.
41/	This output is delivered in a form that ranges from messages to decisions. Expert Systems represent the complex end of all three of these scales. They conduct complex search and interpretive procedures to produce partial to complete solutions that appear as advice, recommendations or decisions.	In Module 1, shortlists are only "messages" - not decisions. By attaching probabilities of a person / resume getting selected / appointed (to the shortlist), we will move towards "Decisions".

 

Number	Note	Comment
43/	Expert systems appear as a program begins to provide advice or make decisions regarding complex problems (that is, ones that require continuing Sensitivity to the external environment in the presence of many variables).	e.g.: Taking into account (i.e. analysing keywords) daily arriving resumes (i.e. external environment).
44/	The last hand of expert Systems tackle the most complex business, problem scientific and human problems. Business problems include such questions as,	This author seems to understand our business!
	how executives should be chosen and compensated ...
45/	Surely it is not radical to suggest that Computing sits at the centre of the process by which solutions are found and rules written. Better ways to collect, verify, organize, compare and analyze information must therefore logically contribute to an improved way to identify solutions. It is logical to assume that the organizations that uses Computing to find or determine the rules, is the one that will be able to turn the rules into software and profit from this software.	ARDIS/ARGIS are long term goals but after waiting for 6 years, we must call these "Short-Term goals"! All our tools fall in this category. Use Computing to find or determine the rules.

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Number	Note	Comment
43/	Expert systems appear as a program begins to provide advice or make decisions regarding complex problems (that is, ones that require continuing Sensitivity to the external environment in the presence of many variables).	e.g.: Taking into account (i.e. analysing keywords) daily arriving resumes (i.e. external environment).
44/	The last hand of expert Systems tackle the most complex business, problem scientific and human problems. Business problems include such questions as,	This author seems to understand our business!
	how executives should be chosen and compensated ...
45/	Surely it is not radical to suggest that Computing sits at the centre of the process by which solutions are found and rules written. Better ways to collect, verify, organize, compare and analyze information must therefore logically contribute to an improved way to identify solutions. It is logical to assume that the organizations that uses Computing to find or determine the rules, is the one that will be able to turn the rules into software and profit from this software.	ARDIS/ARGIS are long term goals but after waiting for 6 years, we must call these "Short-Term goals"! All our tools fall in this category. Use Computing to find or determine the rules.

 

Number	Note	Comment
46/	Software developers, or at least the best of them, certainly are well on the way to understanding how to use Computing to find or create expert rules. Moreover, Computing professionals are perfectly capable of integrating information theory with computing, should they choose to do so.	Tech-Team This means YOU!
47/	A further discouragement to conducting this research is the difficulty that developers encounter when trying to understand a user's problem in cases where the user does not know what the solution is. Of course, the user is also often at a loss to understand how a piece of information not yet known or a piece of software not yet created, might address the problem. The answer is, of course, an intimately collaborative approach to research for Software development. This collaboration could be initiated by either the user or the developer.	Our Goal: We want our Expert System to recommend a few "ideal" executives, against each search assignment.
52/	Finally, employees will comb through all of the Company's internal records, looking for any kind of systematic relationships, between the demand for the park's services and the resources used to satisfy them.	This is like researching, "whom" did we appoint "where" during last 13 years (not too difficult) and "why" that person & not the others, also shortlisted by us or by client? (Quite difficult). This will require client feedback.

 

Number	Note	Comment
52/	With all the information assembled and recorded in a searchable format, the specification of rules begins. ... The developers shift from speculators to active participants as they insist on clear, computable rules, using today's software technology... Dozens or even hundreds of proposed rules will be generated. ... Rules will also have to be assigned priority.	As I have noted elsewhere, RESUMIX Software tool, claims to use 120,000 rules!
53/	Both Computers and humans must order tasks when one is logically dependent on another for completion... The expert system can respond and issue instructions simultaneously. This attribute alone accounts for much of the expert system's advantage. It never sleeps, and it parallel-processes.
53/	By Contrast, the expert system's very structure demands a careful re-examination and a coded solution. With humans, given their vague unpredictability, there is always the hope that they will stumble onto a better response. With expert systems, they "must" find a better answer to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past.	Self-learning thru closed-loop feedback system.

 

Number	Note	Comment
54/	Without expert systems, the interpretation and mobilization of expertise are impossible. In due course, expert systems will guide us in all we do - teaching, reminding, warning, and on occasion, stopping us.	Hopefully, some day expert-systems will stop humans from undertaking any action which may hurt others. The ultimate expert system will require billions of rules.
55/	Equally important is the fact that expert systems as work tools, earn their own keep - that is, they directly generate value by lowering costs, increasing sales or improving products. The developer can ask for a premium price for his expert system because there is a direct connection between it and the value it creates.	In our case, by speeding-up "deliveries" of "better quality executives". Time is the most precious (and limited) resource - whether for an individual or for an organization. If our expert System can help HR managers save "time", they will never go to a Competitor.
57/	It is the role of expert systems, to make sure rules are followed properly, and to encourage the development of more and better rules.
58/	The expert systems deliver answers in the form of either advice or action... They do not deliver more than is needed to read, digest or consider... Time is not only money, it is a rapidly appreciating currency.	So more business can get executed in same time as earlier.

 

Number	Note	Comment
58/	... by delivering too much information of uncertain values, the Internet inevitably slows the decision-making.
59/	The second reason why expert-systems produce profitable decisions is that their answers are more likely to be correct... That means a credit-card limit can be raised within minutes and a mortgage approved in a day... Expert systems speed Corporate responses and sharpen every aspect of Corporate performance.	Higher probability... Shortlist sent in minutes & Converted Brodata sent in an hour and interviews arranged in a day?
59/	In the face of mounting Competitive pressures, there is less and less time to think about pending decisions... The expert system is a decision-maker that never sleeps.	There is not enough time to create - and keep up-dated - a LIST of pending work (i.e. pending decisions). This is where our SCHEDULER (OES) helps.
60/	Of course, in other situations, the expert system will itself implement a decision with no human intervention or notice.	e.g.: Automatic conversion of emails resumes into Module 1 database structure (CARDIS) & auto-conversion into "Converted Brodata (C-ARGIS)" & keyword matchmaking.
62/	Last and not least, the expert system will search for better rules - Cause-and-effect relationships	**Jainism's "Siddhant" & Karma - Can this Siddhant (principle) be turned into an Expert System?

 

Number	Note	Comment
62/	...this could be a new piece of published research that reveals a correlation between new product introductions and Corporate Success.	In course of time, we must compile data to discover co-relation between Ind/Func/Desig/Salary of an executive at present Ind/Func/Desig/Salary of an executive in the new appointments. Statistical analysis will reveal interesting "rules"!
63/	...There is nothing impossible about checking a fact with its source to avoid acting on mistaken information, to confirm that the data is current or to ensure that the rule has been successfully tested.	"Correctness of Data" 'We will face this problem in case of "NON-MEMBER DATABASE" and "CORPORATE DATABASE" where we will be compiling data about same executive or same Company, from different sources & at different points of time.
63/	However, once a rule is revealed to be flawed, the structured approach of the expert system requires it to be expunged.	Karmarkar's algorithm saved AT&T millions of dollars in the 80s - the best route for a message over a phone network.
64/	But the key point is that, with the expert system, the likelihood of error will fall because there will have been at least an attempt to use humanity's accumulated knowledge.	In our case, our Consultants' accumulated knowledge.

 

Number	Note	Comment
64/	Their (software developer's) goal is to make sure that the end-users do not decide anything unless they have to. Since there is too much to know, too much to learn, the developers make the machine do the work whenever possible.	Again, consider our "SCHEDULER (OES)". If each & every inquiry (whether online or offline), is entered into OES, without fail, there would be no need to look beyond (outside) SCHEDULER to find out what DECISIONS are remaining to be taken (either by us or by client).
65/	Computers should first use expert rules themselves. Let the software run itself, applying the rules for its own operation! Why does the user have to do all that clicking? ...so, for example, statistical programs will provide both the output and the rules for its interpretation... while the expert system will run more slowly, the user is off doing other work, not sitting at the screen, waiting. The user may actually be thinking, plotting, planning, or scheming.	To some extent, we have implemented this (rule) in our "OFFLINE RESUME ENTRY CDs" by making it self-run... do our monthly (cumulative) "target vs achievement" graphs do this? In our cases, most of these programs must be made to run at night.
67/	Yet the old model of do it one way and sell it to a billion people, continues to be the holy grail of the Computing industry.	That is why, we keep getting versions after new versions with more & more features which we are never going to use!

 

Number	Note	Comment
67/	... the expert system's first responsibility is to remove error from the decision-maker's mind... Since the volume of data available data is so extensively corrupted from so many sources, the existence of a reliable quality-control standard already greatly improves the accuracy of business decisions. The expert-rules would create an array of gates to trap low-quality information and shunt it into delete space.	Abhi eg: Non-Member database & soon Corporate Databases, are classic examples of such corruption.
68/	Could it not simply be a requirement that no decision-making process include assertions that are not attributed to an appropriate source?	eg: Two designations and two employer-names for same executive (Non-member) or two different addresses for same Company. Minimum we could/should do, is to enter: - Source - Date of entry.
69/	But information for business purposes should not enter the user's mind until the expert system has reviewed it for accuracy. The goal continues to be that expert systems should save users time - - - - -	After a while, Non-Member database search may throw up 200 names, simply because we cannot apply more than 3 Search parameters viz.: Ind/Func/Designation level. How to narrow this down to 20? We must certainly need an expert system for this - otherwise, our Consultants will be lost!

 

Number	Note	Comment
70/	Rather the expert system will decide what database structure to use, what categories to use, what to include, how to include it, and whenever practical, how to extract it directly from the information flow and insert it into the relevant database. The fully-developed system, will also remind the user that additions to the database have been made and that Information that has now proved to be incorrect or irrelevant has been deleted. Of course, quality control tools can also be sent into existing databases, to purge them. Such self-adjusting databases, managed by expert systems, will provide solutions unique to particular industries, without exhausting managerial time.	Abhi/Rajeev eg: Daily inflow of Webform (resumes / job-advts / shopping carts) + Corporate data + Non-member data. Extracting & converting all of these, continuously in "Knowledge Bases". Frequency distribution of keywords would be one such "self-adjusting" database, which will continuously compute latest "frequencies" of keywords with arrival of each resume.
72/	Real questions are those to which the user has little idea of the answer... Most search techniques differ only in whether you narrow your search at the beginning or narrow the answers at the end.	Plain english language such as, "Who shall I recommend to my client to fill this position?"

 

Number	Note	Comment
75/	In some cases, decisions are slowed as the decision-makers try to digest all the information to which they are exposed... What is so easily forgotten in a discussion of the communications role of the Internet is how time-intensive the act of Communicating actually is.	This is currently happening with Nomit & Consultants trying to "read" each email resume coming in - which has gone up from 10/day to 100/day in last 2 weeks. What happens when incoming volume of email resumes goes upto 500/day? How many hours do our Consultants spend daily in reading & replying emails? or Composing & Sending emails? A good area for an Expert System. Ans: Let an expert system read these & present only 5 resumes!
76/	Rather, the Volume is now so great that you have no idea whether the next message is of extra-ordinary value, no value, or so wrong it will sabotage you. You have no idea, if the next message is vital or trivial... What is happening more & more frequently in the face of this avalanche of messages is that people are simply disconnecting.	Abhi A strong case for an Intelligent Spider (as in ISYS). - also shutting off their cell-phones. For a businessman, there is neither peace nor privacy left, under this onslaught of communication.

 

Number	Note	Comment
77/	When you are a typical knowledge-worker receiving more than a hundred messages a day - when you have to spend two, three, and sometimes more hours merely reading and responding to your email - it is impossible to compose thoughtful replies.	Abhi/Rajeev Our greatest challenge is to "liberate" our consultants from this "tyranny" of emails, thru development of suitable Expert System. (05-10-2002)
78/	In a response that is common to this industry, they assert that the solution to overload is either an as yet uninvented artificially intelligent agent or some simple coding. The middle-range answers, the development of a highly complex, rule-based expert system that would take great effort to create but is far from impossible, tends not to occur to them. (The basic logic of such a system is discussed below).	Abhi/Rajeev ISYS Intelligent Spider? I suppose each consultant can enter in advance: "The following are my areas of interest"...
79/	Alternatively, the user is directed to the filtering & screening tools that already exist for email. But these systems are not expert... yet they do offer some value... You could also, of course, filter by subjects, by categories in the headers, or by keywords in the text itself.	Abhi We could, at least install these quickly to reduce the load of our Consultants. Priority: (e.g.) $\textcircled{1}$ Clients $\textcircled{2}$ Candidates $\textcircled{3}$ Any other Corporate entity

 

Number	Note	Comment
81/	... the software automatically tries to build an Inventory using the characteristics of those messages ranked as "useful"... Users must actually decide, which messages are useful and which are not... begin to characterize them. Is this useful to me? Is this not useful to me? I am not sure... The commercial potential of an expert system for message management is great indeed... offering the besieged business manager and knowledge worker, that precious resource: time.
	Then, as the exclusion list is added to by the user, an already well-established pattern-recognition program will look for common characteristics... In other words, the system will find rules to use... The system is even quite capable of adding to its recognition pattern...	Conclusions drawn/reached by the Expert system based on "patterns".
83/	By applying to message content, search tools that measure word frequency and pattern recognition (not "spooky" AI), the system can draw inferences from the user's behaviour to suggest other priority criteria.	We have repeatedly talked about calculating "Frequency of keywords" appearing in a resume: same thing for other email messages.

 

Number	Note	Comment
84/	In addition, the system will deliver a full set of operating statistics. The user will be able to see at a glance how many messages arrive from specific places, concerning what subjects and generating what replies. Trends, over time will also be highlighted.	Abhi/Rajeev Suppose we assign a "RULE DEVELOPER" tool. In this tool, each resume will be read by EXPERTS & then he enters, below each resume, one/more rules.
84/	As a consequence, the expert system first must adopt rules about the management of information itself - that is, about how to organize, search, and apply information. In other words, expert system must make rules about information in order to find the rules about everything else. The development of expert systems is thus dependent on the determination of information rules... we have to make study of information our highest priority.	Automating all of our Knowledge Tools like Sorter Compiler Eliminator Refiner Segregator Educator Matchmaker Highlighter etc etc. While using each of these tools, Inder/Anjana/myself have, subconsciously applied some "RULES". If you capture/embed these rules in an Expert System, these tools will work automatically, on their own. (05-10-02)

 

Number	Note	Comment
87/	For example, each unit of stored information can be given tags (or labels) that, among other possibilities, describe its content, source, length, type (letter, memo, report, book), internal structure (summary, chapters, headers), composition (text, charts, numbers, photographs, art), citation history (how many times it has been used and by whom), popularity (growing or declining volume of output)... These tags then become possible search-criteria, as well as characteristics used to design databases.	Should we consider/treat, each "Resume" as a "unit of stored Information"?
87/	What is certain is that this new approach will place all the information precisely in the continuity of time, making it possible to analyze an event or a phenomenon over a period of years... Contrary to the popular impression, time-series analysis is meant for the entire life sequence of that event, not just the past quarter or year.	See my note on "Compensation Survey" (sent to Cyril). We, most certainly want to analyze "Executive Salary Trends" (shifts in Frequency Distribution curves) over many years AND be able to analyze by City / Region / Age / Exp / Edu Quali / Industry / Function / Designation / Company etc. etc.

 

Number	Note	Comment
88/	... The difficulties faced by in the struggle for an Informed Society can clearly be seen in the state of many of the World's digital databases. Most cannot provide any time-series capability. This is partly because, the design of the systems does not allow a "Sort by time" in any practical sense. Some databases actually destroy "dated" information, making time-series impossible.	I believe most "reports" in OES permit "sort-by-time".
88/	Another essential characteristic of an appropriately organized database will be that each significant element of information will be linked internally to other relevant elements.
89/	However, placing a piece of information in its correct context and continuity (out of tens of thousands of possibilities) is a computing application of high degree... ... only when improved engines work in collaboration with improved databases...	Is this what we can expect in our "redesigned" Module 1 datacapture & search engine?
90/	Innovations are not created by asking people what they want; this is only a starting point for your own line of investigation. With radical innovations, people do not know what to ask for, because, after all, they are not the innovators. It takes imagination to know what you want because you actually have to describe what could be created. Users are merely able to do so.	Abhi/Rajeev If you ask Consultants (what they want from your software tools), they will focus on what will help them in their immediate task. But it is your job to understand the "Nature of our Business" (read my notes) & then figure out, WHAT tools will help Consultants 6/12 months from today.

 

Number	Note	Comment
109/	... document the things that people do not know that adversely affect their work performance, then create a specific tool to fill the knowledge-gap.	Abhi/Rajeev
111/	Understanding Context is the equivalent of being able to see a series of concentric rings emanating from a single impulse, intersecting those of a dozen different impulses.	See diagram of "Kal-Chakra"
111/	An opportunity is a good idea that appears where you least expect to find it and has a use where you least expect to be able to apply it.	e.g.: a priced CD of "Compensation Survey" extracted from enlarged Com-Com.
112/	The expert system would then use its rules to hunt down "threads" of relationship among different pieces of information from different sources, in effect creating a storyline. In addition, it would express these often complex threads (or relationships) in a visual form, using colour and geometric structure to highlight areas of further investigation... For example, a variety of complex statistical relationships can now be expressed in the multi-coloured simulation of a topographical map.	Could www.mindset.com do this? This sounds quite like "Mind Manager" - enterprise edition s/w available for $260/=$. I saw on WWW this morning but was unable to see its immediate relevance to our problem of how to construct ARDIS. (07-10-2002)

 

Number	Note	Comment
90/	Moreover, it will be also necessary to observe the users, since many people cannot describe what they are doing, do not have the time to describe what they are doing and often misdescribe what they are doing. Developers who are serious about expert-systems will engage in lengthy & direct observation of users in the widest possible range of situations.	Abhi/Rajeev Sit next to a Consultant for 2 hrs/day for 8 days & watch what exactly they are doing. (08-10-02)
98/	What happened, of course, is that each of these companies was hit by a new development one millimeter outside of its line of vision. And it was often a new development that had already attracted much comment and discussion. In other words, they could have known but did not.	Is backward integration (to a brick & mortar backoffice managed recruiting firm) by Naukri, JobsAhead, Monster etc a FACT that we are unable to SEE?
107/	Programming for obvious solutions... can be duplicated with reasonable ease. But ignorance-busting category-making expert software cannot be so easily reproduced.
108/	At a basic level, the process is straightforward. For examples, a routine investigation would uncover the fact that engineers generally know very little about marketing, even though, it is obviously true that the products they design, must sell.	A "rule" of the type we can use in ARDIS? So observations are "rules".

 

Number	Note	Comment
112/	But the past is the only raw-material out of which to fashion a vision of the future. And the further forward you wish to look, the further back you must go.	Like our 65000 resumes & 1000 executives appointed so far in 13 years?
114/	The answers to complex problems by definition cross boundaries - even while specialization creates them.	Although we are trying to create ARDIS in the context of Resumes, in course of time, it may work equally well with other documents.
114/	In other words, we need to make it possible for people to use knowledge they do not have in their heads, but do have in their computers. That is exactly what expert systems do.	Converting databases into knowledge-bases.
114/	Expert programs will aid in the diagnosis of undetermined illnesses...	Like diagnosis of a firm's financial results of last 10 years to uncover / discover, what "illnesses" the firm is suffering from AND predicting, what kind of SKILLS (Candidates), would cure that firm of those illnesses !!

 

Number	Note	Comment
115/	Treatment Options will be recommended as well.	Like shortlisting & recommending to such a "sick" Company, certain Candidates (possessing certain SKILLS and having certain ACHIEVEMENTS to their credit).
115/	However, it is probably true that many of those who have achieved senior positions are unlikely to appreciate their own ignorance. And It is even less likely for them to see a piece of Software as a solution to their deficiency.	I am not guilty of this, sir!
115/	More broadly speaking, the urgency of addressing a person's ignorance is in direct relation to that person's decision-making power...	Our Consultants are "deciding" which executives (resumes) to refer to the Client & "why" (the rationale) - because "they possess the SKILLS demanded by the Clients.
116/	Fortunately, people do exhibit similarities based on some shared characteristics... Education... Industry... Occupations... Age... Engineers... Lawyers... Mathematicians... Historians... Automotive Executives.... Software executives... Pharmaceutical Industry... Entertainment industry... young... old...	Keywords seem to describe these e.g.'s Skills / Knowledge / Attitudes / Attributes / Edu/. That is why frequency of above-mentioned categories of KEYWORDS, must be plotted for all of these

 

Number	Note	Comment
119/	We await an expert system that stores the characteristics of all the World's great stories, codified as good story rules. Some are for plot, others for character. Some are for timing, some for imagery. There can be expert systems that have stored, in an organised form, the history of movies, with rules deduced by the pattern-recognition software, already in existence.	A "Converted Biodata" is an attempt at such "storytelling". We must present it, to our clients, in a very imaginative / unusual manner. It must have "drama" built into it! Replace "great stories" with "great resumes". Does it make sense? What are the "characteristics" of a "great Resume"? the FORMAT? FONTS? the CONTENT? TITLES? the LANGUAGE? the KEYWORDS? see form designed by me for "Converted Biodata" in ARGIS file. (09-10-02)
122/	While standard software is often very difficult to protect as Intellectual property, expert systems are very different from the software that exists today. These differences make them protectable, even easily protectable. Very Valuable + easily protected a recipe for monopoly, status and monopoly profits.

 

Number	Note	Comment
117/	And the very scope of ignorance makes it likely that useful observations will result.	We will see some revelations / insights, as soon as we complete the frequency of these keywords (Ind-wise / Func-wise / Edu-wise / Age-wise / Desig-level wise etc).
117/	Or, are they doing adhoc research to fill an order for information quickly?... The real problem is the adhoc quality of those delegations.	e.g.: Nimrit asks for a shortlist of "Bankers" by today evening! That is an order for information which a Consultant has to fulfill fast. So they will do some "adhoc research" & produce SOME shortlist by evening.
118/	Second, precisely because the ignorance is so pervasive, it takes but a small improvement in knowledge to produce a major impact. After all, a single candle in a cave of riches should easily lead to treasure... (Entertainment Industry) Its participants take as an article of faith that it is impossible to reliably predict Which movie will score big.	Will "member-search" & "non-member search" give us a major competitive advantage over our competitors? We all have the same problem! For us, it is, "which resume will be hit?" which have a high probability of Success? We want to be able to "predict" this.

 

Number	Note	Comment
123/	In an economy where innovation is your only safe route to competitive advantage, the legal rights to that innovation become critically important.	This means, if & when developed, we should take out a patent on our Expert system.
125/	These systems use rules that are the result of genuine research. This proprietary knowledge is then expressed as a complex set of interrelated rules. The System itself will have explicitly search for and validated the relevant rules, crossing multidisciplinary boundaries. In other words, the expert system will often appear as a highly complex and therefore non-obvious solution... ...will presumably use multidisciplinary research to create a set of rules that will increase the odds of generating a commercially successful product.	In our case, it is simply a question of finding a "commercially successful" resume from the database.
127/	Nevertheless, many important business problems that invite expert systems, are left unaddressed because developers "assume", having conducted no research, that such a system is impossible without an advance in software technology... Conventional Software can have unconventional applications, if only it is asked to do so.	Abhi/Rajeev we dont need advanced neuralnet techniques to develop expert systems. www.banter.com an example? (10-10-02)

 

Number	Note	Comment
129/	In other words, developers could draw on their research to produce Content-intensive software. But content-intensive software is not an expert system that just has 2000 logically obvious steps, as opposed to 500. It is "calibrated" Software that contains information that was discovered in the research, and that if not reproduced exactly, renders the software inoperative.
130/	An excellent solution might involve a complex set of numerical data, derived from a rapidly changing situation, where the method used to derive the observations is a trade secret, known only to the developer. In circumstances such as this, copyright could be a very powerful protection. Other Companies could not just duplicate the results of the first movers; they would have to take the time to conduct their own research and generate the answer of their own. But, by then, the original developer should have advanced further into the problem. This is the advantage of dealing with a complex problem: the possibilities for improvement are not easily exhausted. This creates, in turn, true upgrades, where the user is manifestly better served by each version.	Arrival of a large no. of resumes everyday is a "rapidly changing situation". Daily "extraction" of new / important KEYWORDS & daily updating of "frequency-distribution" curves, is our trade secret.

 

Number	Note	Comment
131/	Of course, the best way to protect a product, is not to sell it. This is the model of the application service provider (ASP). These Companies maintain Software in their own facilities and use the Internet to deliver software functions to their clients. ("We fall in this category - thank god!")
	However, an expert system delivered in the 'ASP' model, would clearly be a profit machine. An expert system that delivers a critical business function (for example, selecting Senior Managerial Talent), would run in its own facility and deliver its advice to the client via the Internet.
	As the expert system continued its research, it would adjust itself (called "learning" by people who think machines are alive) to improve its performance. A competitor would have to repeat the original effort merely to duplicate the initial 'form' of the expert system.
132/	And the Client would know only that the product works, not "how" it works. Fees for such a system would, of course, be exorbitant but the option for the Client is to choose executives in a demonstrably less effective fashion.	Abhi/Rajeev Author says, we can command a "premium" (a higher professional fees as compare to our Competitors), if we use an EXPERT SYSTEM, in selection of executives.

 

Number	Note	Comment
132/	Information about what the customer wants and knows must be matched with information about the vehicles available and the conditions under which they are offered. Plainly, there is not enough information currently at hand to help carmakers better serve the needs of their customers.	Once again an issue of matching of information. / Buyers Vs. Sellers / We, too, like Carmakers, do not know, quantitatively & qualitatively, what kind of executives are Recruiters looking for. We will know only when we compile/tabulate Job-advts released by TOP 500 Companies of India, over a one year period.
133/	That is why there are expert rules (many of which can be made to be proprietary) waiting to be uncovered.... Because Verifying the information is admittedly a lot of work; part of the process must be Computerized in an expert system that checks for Verification hallmarks. But the task must be undertaken.... The material uncovered during the research phase is then assembled into a carefully structured database	Many types of analysis are possible if we create a database of 10,000 job-advts (500 Corp.). Many "insights" will emerge. what kind of jobs/positions are being advertised? by different companies/industries. what "functions"? what "designation-levels"? what Edu-Quali? what Age? Experience? what posting cities? what salary-levels? Many relationships will emerge.

 

Number	Note	Comment
135/	... there is a vast amount of data that cannot be interpreted without the assistance of Computing... Database management is of course necessary, but it is only a part of the interpretive task.... Some uses are apparent only when the user developer is trying to truly interpret information.... But what software must really do is express the data within the instruction set, that is, it must express the essential elements or characteristics of the relevant data. Software must become one with content.
139/	In a world of fierce Competitive Struggle, the expert system's ability to bestow Competitive advantage is power indeed. And a monopoly supplier of such an advantage would possess power sublime.
140/	In the middle of this struggle, there may well emerge an entirely new type of Software developer's these people will call themselves, Software Creators and will specialise in using Computers to Create meaning.	("ARDIS" is all about deciphering the meaning).
142/	The result will be a sharp competitive advantage for those who adopt the systems quickly and aggressively, especially in the beginning, when others are lagging behind. Expert Systems, inevitably replace part of human work; in many cases, they will, in effect, replace a-worker.

 

Number	Note	Comment
143/	Expert systems may be able to sort by keywords, through a mountain of resumes, but they will never be able to identify anything as intangible or profound as human talent... ...Simply put, expert systems have two primary uses: they save in those situations. where human decision making is too slow to be practical, and they improve the quality of the human decision. ("Predictability")
144/	Of course, humans are being replaced not only because they are too slow, but also because they are too expensive.	e.g.: capturing email resumes into Module 1 manually. And, what about trying to upload on our website? This is manually impossible.
	.....production does not begin until the customer has ordered.	Going further, we must automate even parts of OES!
	.....Each Component has to be made right the first time, with a minimal defect rate	To fail to use these systems is to render the Company utterly uncompetitive.
150/	Expert systems are now also advise financial institutions on the credit worthiness of Customers - - - -	See my notes on "Pricing" (What terms to quote), containing a few simple "rules".

 

Number	Note	Comment
150/	Capital One, for example, has become a powerful new presence in the credit card market, and it argues that its success came because it researched its market space more carefully than its competitors.	By trying to build-up & analyse a large data-base of job-advts released by Indian Corporates, we too plan to "research" our market. Read my today's email to monsterindia's Maitreyi. (12-10-02).
152/	And if Sabotage in the twenty-first century means anything, it means attacking the establishment through its vital Communication and Computing networks. This is the ultimate threat - - - -	Abhi Our data & network security risks can never be "over-emphasized". We have to be PARANOID (INSANE) about this. (13-10-02).
153/	Even if the mathematics of the coding WAS flawless, the Security process is Vulnerable to the rogue insider, the careless user, weak documentation and botched implementation.	Abhi
153/	But once perfected, an expert system that made trading fail-safe would uncover other applications. The main strategies of this software could likely be translated into other situations.	e.g.: ARDIS & ARGIS may well start with resumes but get quickly adapted to "Job-Advts" as well.

 

Number	Note	Comment
154/	An expert security system will incorporate, both the most advanced mathematical keys and the most recent and proprietary "security" calibrations. ...There would be multiple, interrelated levels of security, including time lags and false keys, true locks and false locks, real doors and false doors.	Security based on "biometric" devices?
155/	There would be a fortified audit trail for all information that moves in & out of the organization. A hidden back channel would give Senior management a continuing Security overview. And some of the most critical functions will still be performed on Computers that operate behind locked doors and are in no physical way connected to the World. ... And the system would be able to "remember" every recorded instance of a lapse in security... And of course, the Security system would continually add new protection features. Special care will have to be taken to integrate the Security system with the rest of the Organization's information technologies, also on a Continuing basis.	Abhi Most important when it is so easy to send-out data over email or even thru chat-rooms... Should our Expert System be installed on a stand-alone Computer, which is not part of network?

 

Number	Note	Comment
156/	And yet, most businesses do not have an adequate information or knowledge strategy. They do not understand the hierarchy of data, which starts with information and progresses thru knowledge to wisdom. They do not know what information is incorrect, who has the information, who should have the information, or how to find or create the information that provides Competitive advantage...	Raw Data (documents) $\downarrow$ Databases $\downarrow$ Knowledge Bases (our Knowledge Tools) $\downarrow$ Expert Systems (key issue).
157/	The point of the expert system is to apply rules in situations. where the rules are known, to apply them to problems with established and proven answers.
158/	The expert system performs routine functions well, and management involves a large measure of routine, repetitious work that is just waiting to be performed by machine - hire employees, - fire employees..... with expert systems, managers will be freed to do only the interesting work; addressing exceptions, revisiting and revising Company strategy, uncovering opportunities and identifying threats.	Everything about OES is repetitive. Only "Data" changes in every search assignment. This is why OES is an ideal candidate for automation. (13-10-02)

 

Number	Note	Comment
162/	In the process, the Company's focus is diffused and its principal Competitive advantage can erode.	To repeat for the $N^{\text{th}}$ time, our principal "Competitive Advantage" would come from: $\blacktriangleright$ A huge database of MEMBERS & NON-MEMBERS (See operation Justice/operation Blackhole/operation Manhattan/JAWS/Operation LOCK-IN) $\blacktriangleright$ A predictive, pinpoint search (of executives) (Expert system "Probability of Success" based listings). $\blacktriangleright$ A superfast communication with clients & candidates (over mobile phones/Voice-mail/email etc). $\blacktriangleright$ An automated, flawless, Order Execution System (another Expert-System) $\blacktriangleright$ ARDIS $\blacktriangleright$ Auto conversion of email resumes into a structured database (With keywords) for uploading on our website. $\blacktriangleright$ ARGIS $\blacktriangleright$ Auto generation of standardized formatted "Converted Bio-datas (hiding Candidate Identity)" for blasting to Clients & Corporates. (13-10-02)

 

Number	Note	Comment
162/	Expert Systems deliver control over expertise, which is information in its most highly applicable form.	shortlists with indications of "probability of Success" against each resume...
162/	The bigger the Organisation, the greater the need for Control.... Without control, there is an inevitable tendency to chaos as any organization grows.... whether it's acknowledged or not, control remains a key concern of all organizations.	Control is all about "course-correction" based on "Feedback Loop" of Variances (especially-negative), between TARGETS & ACTUAL ACHIEVEMENTS. There is no need for control, if this Course-correction takes place AUTOMATICALLY!
164/	On the other hand, if the Company was trying to accelerate an R & D project, the information flow would be different. Perhaps information should flow, not to marketing but to human resources to trigger more recruitment.	And just imagine, if such an HRM system (Expert System that is) installed at our Client's premises, was linked-up to our own ORDER EXECUTION SYSTEM! It would become an "End-to-End" solution for the client - and more business for us!
165/	what is not recorded, cannot be a lesson learned....	To day, we have no record of NO of Job searches / Resume Searches / Job Alerts / Candidate Alerts.

 

Number	Note	Comment
165/	In effect, an expert system of any kind can be used to ensure compliance.	This is why it is essential to build into OES, Targets & Actuals for Invoicing & Net collection.
165/	The computer, by contrast, has the time and capacity... and it is immune to boredom and resentment. Thus the second function of the expert system is to act as a tool for compliance that can be used with various degrees of stringency.	This should also cover "Targets" for completion of various software development projects (-and "actuals").
165/	Already, a variety of Organisations use the Computer to enforce specific requirements by programming it to stop a process unless a particular step has been Completed.	OES Scheduler.
166/	...a true expert system would actually detect the gibberish being entered into the field.	Consultants must enter their "Assessment" of Candidates in OES (Prelim. Interviews).
166/	All workers at all levels, must accept that they will always have a Computerized expert system, standing at their shoulder (or looking over their shoulder).

 

Number	Note	Comment
171/	One would have thought that it was management's role to explain and implement change; to insist on its necessity. The logic driving expert systems is the same as that behind any advancing technology. And as, in other cases, the technology may be slowed, but it will not ultimately be deflected, no matter how many people feel overwhelmed.	There is no question that a new Consultant would need to be taken thru OES, Step-by-step, one INPUT SCREEN and one OUTPUT report, at a time. Shortcut won't do.
173/	A somewhat more persuasive approach suggests that Companies could be broken into relatively small, autonomous units...	3 months back, we formed 2 teams of Consultants. (13-10-02).
175/	It is fundamental to the logic of the expert system that it must recognize when the situation it faces is exceptional and therefore outside its range of rules.	e.g.: "Auto-Pilot" system in an airplane, which human pilot could-and occasionally does-override.'
175/	Expert systems can be used, if a Company so chooses, to create an organization that effectively pursues its chosen goals... With expert systems, a Company can be "reprogrammed" much more quickly and effectively.	This is the crux!

 

 

 

• 179/ The future is a workplace where the only work available is that truly worthy of human mind...
• Once again, I am reminded of "Human Use of Human Being" by Norbert Weiner (1958).
• In effect, we could end up hurting the most disadvantaged and vulnerable members of society.
• When ARDIS $\&$ ARGIS take over, we must "retrain" our data-entry operators to do, higher skilled work (e.g. headhunt research / Content creation etc).
• 182/ Since nothing human-made is free, no advance comes without effort.
• 184/ Computing (that is the expert system) is capable of replacing all repetitious work. If it is a repeated task, it can be programmed. If it can be programmed, it will be... The repetitious aspects of every job can and will become a Computer order. The work that is left to humans will therefore become extraordinarily difficult... Since much of the work involved in developing and creating software is repetitious, the Computer is well able to apply itself to its own products.
• Abhi
• 6 hours out of 8, Consultants must be left free to talk to clients and Candidates and enter notes (or may be voice-dictate to computers).
• This is something a Computer cannot do.

• 185/ The word "innovation" describes the entire process of creating, developing, testing, and moving the improvement into the marketplace, and the scope of this process is often underestimated.
• "Operation Manhattan" could be one such innovation with profound consequences to our business.
• (13-10-02)
• An innovation must be a departure from past practice.... Innovate faster and make the innovation of greater consequence.
• 186/ ... Continuous improvement has become the economic norm. Everyone is expected to improve everything all the time. Of course, the most common innovations are those that are the easiest to make, the small departures from past practice. They have now become normals, and because they are normals, they no longer confer competitive advantage. They merely prevent a Company from falling behind. To seize a competitive advantage, a Company must now produce an innovation that is a "significant departure" from past practice.
• Every jobsite has
• job-alert
• candidate alert
• shopping Cart
• resume blaster
• So, Where exactly is our Competitive advantage?
• It can only come from
• Operation Manhattan
• ARDIS / ARGIS
• Automated OES capable of being tracked online.
• (13-10-02)

• 190/ As its powerful lead investor, Bill Gates could have asked Microsoft to take the time and bear the risk of creating a disruptive new technology. Though he was reluctant to do this in the past, Gates now describes Microsoft's .NET (technology) Initiative as just such a move. The company does seem prepared to let this array of Web-mounted products slowly evolve into prominence.
• They have been at it for over 18 months now!
• 191/ ... assuming, of course, that you are not so ignorant that you fail to see the significance of what you have tripped over.
• Significance of what I described on p. 188 is simply mind-boggling.
• 192/ The need to be "imaginative and practical" at the same time, so passion presses human capabilities that, in the absence of an intense interest in the domain in question, it becomes almost impossibly difficult.... Ideally - - - - "Only Paranoids Survive" - - - - Passion is the prerequisite... Without passion, they will not be able to rise beyond the level of pedestrian improvement.
• I have suffered these opposing forces for over 13 years.

• 193/ It is difficult to estimate the demand for a product that never existed before. It is even difficult to gauge the Consumer's concern about a problem for which a radical new solution is being proposed (because customers give little thought to problems for which there appears to be no solution). Hence, the innovator is often told that there is no market for the new product because the customer does not think there is a problem to be solved. Still, it needs to be emphasized that making customers aware that there is now a solution, will not immediately cause them to appreciate the problem. This is a long process of education and intellectual thought; the more radical the idea, the longer the process....
• "JAWS" is one such product.
• Resume Database CD for distribution amongst Recruitment Managers could be another.
• If the product does not meet the Customer's need at an affordable price, it will not sell, no matter how aggressively the pitch is made.
• I intend to give away the CD for FREE, just as Rockefeller gifted a million kerosene lamps to chinese people "free" - which kept his refineries running!

• 193/ There is, therefore, a need for an expert briefing program, which would sensitize innovators to Society's needs. This search engine would be very carefully calibrated to identify underlying "themes" in human activity. It could select and match data from the widest range of sources and types, and shape that data into a Vision for the future... This software would be prized, because the information it created would be of great commercial significance.
• 194/ Consumer-spending patterns...
• If we can get 10,000 job advts from Monster india, we can statistically-analyse these (Ind/Function/Designation/City). AND then decide, as to which Company HR Manager, we should Send FREE resume database CD.
• 195/ Even if you have a rich background of information, passionate interest and sensitivity to the consumer's problems, you must still be able to generate new possibilities to see what could be done. You must be able to take any problem or piece of knowledge and rotate it through time and space, looking at it in many different ways.

• 197/ There are also aspects of this program that could be entertaining in a game-like format, since this is, after all, the basic game question turned on its head; find what is not there.
• On our website, I intend using resumes and job-forms, in this manner, which would permit Recruiters $\&$ Jobseekers to add new Keywords.
• OR
• We may show a "Frequency Distribution of Keywords" (for that Industry or Function) and ask the recruiters $\&$ jobseekers to "Agree" or "Disagree" or assign a "Weightage/Probability".
• 207/ Both these groups of job-applicants now have a tool at their disposal to redress part of the balance. But what can they do about employers and educational institutions that are slow to adopt evaluation programs?
• It is logical to expect that these programs will be offered at independent test centres, where the young and the experienced will be able to obtain documentation of their capabilities, as a challenge to prospective employers.

• 210/ Indeed, with careful queries, you could identify, the most commonly used fact on any topic. Similarly, it is possible to identify "Key task categories" by frequency of use, by link to other tasks and by pre-requisite of use. There is simply no need to guess about these matters.
• "Keywords used by recruiters while drafting a job-advt can/do indicate the importance they attach to the skills/knowledge/Attitude/Attribute, which they expect a jobseeker to possess."
• ... reminds me of our pursuit to find out the "frequency of use" of keywords in a resume (- or a job advt).
• Of course, the mere "presence" of such keywords in a jobseeker's resume is NO proof that he really possesses those skills !
• Can we say that our Keyword matchmaking Software is only making "Empirical Observations" and reporting its findings?
• All "job-alert" $\&$ "candidate-alert" softwares already do this! So, what, if anything, is the INNOVATION of our Expert System?

• 216/ There is hardly a credible consultant who does not use computing as a significant tool. And for many of them, their ability to use this tool gives them a competitive advantage in the delivery of their services.... It is therefore clear that Computing, especially expert systems, will play a pivotal role in shaping tomorrow's Consulting Industry... Since Consultants have only expertise to sell, they are often, the primary users of the expert systems, almost all of which, have direct applicability to the consultants' responsibilities.... As a result, much of the future growth of Consulting will be affected by the development of expert systems....
• For us, this is most certainly so.
• The first obstacle involves those consultants who do not see themselves as true Information professionals.... While consultants have always accessed information and conducted research of various kinds, they are not used to doing the amount of research necessary for this kind of software.

• 218/ Software, by contrast, offers a different way to sell solutions (that is, information). First, it does not require the consultant's personal contact time, and so it is already more profitable. And because Software can be distributed more easily, whether by ASP or not, a greater number of customers can be served. This means that there are now research questions that can be profitably addressed, but only when the answer is delivered by software. The challenge to the consultant is that the new "Software" answers supercede their lesser, older, less advanced answers.
• Delivering "Job Alerts" / "Candidate-Alerts"
• broadcasting JAWS tabulations to placement agencies / newspapers / Cyber cafes etc. are examples...
• Thru email, SMS or Voice-mail etc. Someday we will "deliver" to our clients, -
• "Compensation Surveys" by emails (those who will subscribe to this service - it will not be free!).
• (15-10-02)
• 221/ Many clients are quite unprepared to make these decisions because they have no credible information strategy. Until they know what information they need, who needs it, how to find or create it, and how to save and apply it, they will not be able to use consultants effectively.
• Since Recruitment Managers do NOT know, how $\&$ where to find a database of competent executives, our job will be to "Educate" them by gifting them our Resume Database CD (with Search engine). We must target the TOP 500 Companies.

• 222/ Thus human-resource management and organizational design offer attractive opportunities for both consultants and their expert systems.
• See my notes on "How to automatically construct Organization-charts on our website".
• 223/ When senior executives need to be "reassigned" - - - - - - "or resign or retire ordie".
• Consultants will be happy to fill any gaps by drawing on their executive recruitment services, a large and lucrative aspect of their business.
• However, the recruitment of senior executives will soon be highly dependant on expert software (unlike today, when the personal network is pre-eminent).
• The experience of a seasoned recruiter, while not to be dismissed, will no longer be adequate, given the sophistication of the Skills in demand and the tight supply.
• Effective recruitment will require both the talents of an experienced team and the full weight of Scientific evidence (expressed in Computerized form).... "Probability of success" attached to each resume shortlisted.

Based on the uploaded images, here is the text arranged by file name. The files with handwritten notes appear to be excerpts from a technical or business report, likely on Expert Systems and Organizational Change. The file with printed text contains unrelated news articles.

LS/51

223/- The Consultancies will use as a starting point, the evaluation programs common to Business and education. Many will exhaustively research every aspect of "Leadership", creating a proprietary database, that will chart the career paths of thousands of executives and identify "Benchmarks" associated with success or failure.

• [Right Margin Note]: We still need to "design" and then "administer" such Evaluation Programs (Tests). Obviously we will not "sell" such tests to anybody.

223/- However, the work that goes into producing the "Executive" expert system might be the foundation for specialized evaluation applications that serve a broader range of Occupations. The Consultancy would also perhaps be tempted to provide these broader systems as explicit Software products.

• [Right Margin Note]: This is what Atul Nigam wants to do, - once he gets our domain expertise!
• [Right Margin Note (Brackets below 223/-)]: We should develop a Software (an expert system) that "simulates" an Organisation Chart. It will use some "rules" & then "mutate (transform) any Org-chart presented by an HR Mgr. on our website, online. It will suggest "changes" in the structure.

224/- However, a fully developed expert simulator would use its judgement to recommend the structure it felt would be most effective.

• [Right Margin Note (Continuation of Brackets below 223/-)]: Rules for Construction (i.e. Simulating) an Org-chart are fairly simple, e.g: a V.P. cannot report to a GM (in India) / "safety" function cannot report to Mgr (Finance).

LS/52

224/- But even those who are using the most expert of Search-engines in the best organized databases will realize that it is often difficult to find what is needed, precisely because we do not know what to look for. And we do not know what to look for because we do not know what there is.

224/- To achieve this awareness, they would have to draw on the imagination of thousands of minds.

• [Right Margin Note]: All we need to do, is to upload 100 typical (standard) Organization charts on our website to begin with. Then as each HR manager "edits" any of these 100, a new one gets added to the database! Software will reject any Change (edit) that violates the "rules".

225/- This all barely works, and technology moves either by random luck or very slowly.

• [Right Margin Note]: As a "Recruitment firms" - how many "Recruitment Software" solutions (from thousands of developers), are we aware of?

225/- These expert rules, would have been created by an analysis of all transfer instances in the industry in question.

• [Right Margin Note]: 100 actual Organization Charts of various Companies would suffice to draw up a set of "rules".

LS/53

230/- With the technology treadmill firmly in place, we run harder and harder, to merely keep up with the herd. The economy will now start to move at the speed of the expert system... At the operational level of enterprise, one Company's array of expert systems will be pitted against those of another company.

230/- At the strategic level, enterprise will have no choice but seek advantage by creating innovation.

• [Right Margin Note]: Our project Manhattan & JAWS are an attempt to create such an "innovation". In next 3/4 weeks, we should know, if this clicks! (15-10-02)

231/- As they conduct more and more of the company's normal operations, the mandate to innovate grows.

• [Right Margin Note]: Parekh's Principle - Whichever business-process CAN be automated, MUST be automated.

231/- Those who monitor the expert systems that deliver the Company's sales, remain critically important, but they will be greatly outnumbered by those whose only job is to innovate. The innovator's mandate is clear: find a way to improve the Company's product or the way it is produced.

• [Right Margin Note]: Our Technical Team is bigger than our Consulting Team.

LS/54

231/- There will be those who creatively search for information. Some who shape it into broad Conceptual form, some who formulate detailed alternative answers, some who create the experiments, and some who implement the new answers (which usually appear as an improved expert system). In a Company with a fully-established set of expert systems, most employees will work on improvements & the rest will keep the expert systems working and substitute for them when they do not.

232/- Expert Systems will force an unprecedented degree of change in both the Conduct and the structure of Business Organizations.

• [Right Margin Note]: Read my report "QUO VADIS" (1987), on future of I&T in 21st century. How to survive and grow. This was 13 years before the arrival of 21st century!

232/- No human Organization will be immune, regardless of size or industry. Computerized expert systems will conduct, on a day-to-day basis, almost all of the traditional Corporate functions, from human resources and financial control to production and marketing.

• [Right Margin Note]: I have listed a few such "systems" in "QUO VADIS?" (Which way are you headed?).

LS/55

233/- Second, the Chief Executives will not issue routine instructions, since that will be the responsibility of the machinery.

• [Right Margin Note]: SCHEDULER (in OES) automatically reminds a consultant, about the next action to be taken. When we develop ACRA (Annual Calendar of Repetitive Activities), it will do the same for everybody. Srilekha had prepared "Accounts ACRA".

234/- Those who are monitoring the expert systems must watch vigilantly...

• [Right Margin Note]: When OES becomes "automatic", consultants would need to watch, continuously & keenly, Computer Screens (Graphs) as in an Electric Power Load Despatch Centre or a "Trading" Screen.
• [Right Margin Note (Continuation)]: Like monitoring: - temperature, - pressure, - flow of chemicals in a refinery, and to monitor whether expert system is "opening" or "closing" the appropriate "valves - Pumps - Burners".

236/- Smaller firms may be more willing to adapt, even as they struggle to fund themselves.

• [Right Margin Note]: This applies to us. (15-10-02)

Printed News Articles (Unrelated to Handwritten Notes)

RBI Imposes  Penalty on State Bank of Travancore

• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday said it has imposed a  crore penalty on State Bank of Travancore for violation of its circulars relating to General Repository of Information on Large Credits (GRILL).
• The Reserve Bank of India had issued a show cause notice to the Bank for not having complied with the directions issued by the Bank on submission of information to the General Repository of Information on Large Credits (GRILL). After considering the bank's reply, as also, personal submissions, information documents and other papers furnished, the Reserve Bank came to the conclusion that the bank had violated the instructions/guidelines issued by the Reserve Bank which warranted imposition of monetary penalty on it, RBI said.

US Files Civil Suit Against VW for Green Violations

• The US Justice Department on Monday filed a civil suit against Volkswagen for violating the Clean Air Act by installing illegal devices to defeat emission controls software in 600,000 vehicles. The allegations in the lawsuit can expose the firm to cost of more than billions of dollars, a senior Justice Department official said.
• "The United States will use all appropriate remedies to redress the violations of our nation's clean air laws," said Assistant Attorney General John Cruden, head of the departments environment and natural resources division. The lawsuit will be filed in the Eastern District of Michigan and then transferred to Northern California, where other VW-related lawsuits are pending.

Goldman Checks into SAMHI Hotels with  Fund

• Goldman Sachs has picked up a significant minority stake in hospitality investment and investment startup SAMHI Hotels by investing  crore.
• SAMHI Hotels currently owns 16 hotels and has a 33% operating portfolio through acquisition of hotels from Royal Orchid and Sarovar Hotels, and then by partnering with global operators AccorHotels and Hyatt.
• The focus will largely be on acquiring, operating or undertaking construction of hotels, apartments and other hospitality projects in India.

Toyota May Drive in Petrol Innovas

• The Indian unit of Toyota Motor Corporation is planning to bring in petrol versions of its successful multi utility vehicles Innova and SUV Fortuner to its sales line-up.
• Toyota Motor is considering having petrol versions to its product range to de-risk sales from adverse rules and diesel vehicles.
• The move will address demand in the National Capital Region, where the Supreme Court banned the sale of large diesel vehicles.
• The share of diesel vehicles with 2-litre or heavy engines is 25% of the market annually and of these 5-8% are sold in the NCR.